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Claus Meyer/Black Star; Serge Attal/Gamma Liaison; Dennis Cox/China Stock; Joe Carini/Pacific Stock; Erica Lansner/Black Star. ISBN: 0-8213-4042-5 Page v Contents Acknowledgments vii Chapter 1 Understanding the Present 1 Swift Growth 2 High Savings 4 Structural Change 6 Pragmatic and Incremental Reforms 8 Initial Conditions 12 Chapter 2 Divining the Future 17 Growth Challenges 18 Growth Possibilities 19 Chapter 3 Laying the Foundations 23 Restoring and Reshaping Government Finances 24 Making Room for Markets 28 Making Markets Work 36 Chapter 4 Shaping a Competitive but Caring Society 43 Making Labor Markets Flexible 44 Protecting the Vulnerable 50 Page vi Chapter 5 Feeding the People 61 Removing Constraints to Domestic Production 62 Projecting Grain Balances 67 Using International Trade 67 Chapter 6 Protecting the Environment 71 Deteriorating Environmental Conditions 72 Pollution Prospects 74 Formulating Policies for a Cleaner Future 76 Chapter 7 Integrating with the World Economy 83 Deepening Trade Integration 84 Deepening Financial Integration 90 Sharing the Benefits of China's Growth 92 Chapter 8 Setting the Agenda 97 Two Visions for 2020 98 China's Agenda to 2020 99 The World and China 103 Conclusion 104 Annex 1 Accounting for China's Growth 105 Preliminaries 106 Data Deficiencies 106 Differences in Technology 106 Structural Change and the Growth Residual 107 Annex 2 Modeling Growth and Structural Change 109 Nontechnical Overview 110 The Model 110 Parameterization 111 Results 113 Annex 3 Projecting Poverty and Inequality 115 Counting the Poor 116 Scenarios for Reducing Poverty 116 Statistical Appendix 119 This report uses Hong Kong when referring to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.

See Chenery and Syrquin (1975) for a classic reference on the international experience. 9. In some areas the predominant outflow of young mate migrants has contributed to a "feminization" of agriculture, towering the web fare of women who now have to toil on the farm and continue with their household responsibilities (especially child rearing). 10. Recent official statistics on the size of the nonstate, noncollective sector may be somewhat misreading because some corporatized state enterprises may be classified in this category.

14, reflecting the undervaluation of income from grain produced by rural households for personal consumption. 69 in 1989. We assume that changes in the household survey since 1990 fully correct for the problems of rural grain undervaluation. The inequality measure is the Theil index, which can be decomposed into rural-urban inequality, which captures the variation of national average rural and urban per capita incomes around the national mean; intraurban inequality, which captures the variation of per capita incomes within urban areas; and intrarural inequality, which captures the variation of per capita incomes within rural areas.

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