By Wenceslao J. Gonzalez
This booklet develops a philosophico-methodological research of prediction and its position in economics. Prediction performs a key position in economics in numerous methods. it may be visible as a uncomplicated technological know-how, as an utilized technology and within the software of this technological know-how. First, it's utilized by fiscal concept which will try out the to be had wisdom. during this regard, prediction has been offered because the medical attempt for economics as a technological know-how. moment, prediction offers a content material concerning the attainable destiny that may be used for prescription in utilized economics. therefore, it may be used as a consultant for monetary coverage, i.e., as wisdom in regards to the destiny to be hired for the answer of particular difficulties. 3rd, prediction additionally has a task within the software of this technological know-how within the public area. this can be throughout the decision-making of the brokers — contributors or firms — in particularly diverse settings, either within the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics.
Within this context, the learn is prepared in 5 components, which debate correct elements of the function of prediction in economics: I) the matter of prediction as a try for a technological know-how; II) the final orientation in technique of technology and the matter of prediction as a systematic attempt; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: occurrence for prediction as a try; IV) Epistemology and technique of monetary prediction: Rationality and empirical methods and V) Methodological elements of financial prediction: From description to prescription. therefore, the ebook is of curiosity for philosophers and economists in addition to policy-makers looking to make certain the roots in their functionality. the fashion used lends itself to a large audience.
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Extra resources for Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics
37 Likewise, there are many cases of explanatory theories that do not include prima facie a predictive dimension. ). , Grangerian causality. In this regard, there is an analysis of causal inference from several disciplines: Sobel (1995). The quality of prediction (of new data) is not the only means of testing a hypothesis. A key question is also the appropriateness of the testing means to the terms and conditions of the hypothesis. 36 See, in this regard, Gonzalez (2010a), where there is an analysis of eight philosophico-methodological conceptions on prediction, those proposed by Reichenbach, Popper, Toulmin, Kuhn, Lakatos, Salmon, Kitcher, and Rescher.
It is a sort of probative objectivity which leads to results coordinating with rational cogency. Accordingly, scientific results must show a rational appropriateness insofar as scientists proceed in a way that will lead to the same knowledge which can be possessed by other scientists. This is clear in the case of simultaneous discoveries (such “Neither the fact that major scientific controversies are protracted nor our inability to delineated a precise account of scientific evidence should undermine our confidence that the resolution of scientific debate on the basis of evidence is possible.
Although there are subjective factors in science (motives, tastes, desires, beliefs or personal suppositions), it should emphasize the objective level: the contents of science, in general, and scientific prediction, in particular, should be based on what is obtained from the object investigated. A form of balancing the subjective facet (or even “subjectual:” it belongs to the subject, but it does not need to be purely individual) is in the principle of publicity, because only what is put to critical discussion within the scientific community can be accepted as an outcome of research.